At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: A rest is as good as a change
Feb 5, 2026
Ben Ramsey, head of EM sovereign credit strategy at J.P. Morgan, gives takeaways on spreads and country credit. Anezka Christovova, head of EMEA EM and Latam local-market strategy, shares macro and local-market reads on elections and central bank moves. They discuss Fed pick market reactions, EM FX momentum and risks, tight EM credit spreads, positioning for carry, and on-the-ground election implications.
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Fed Nomination Removed Dollar Tail Risk
- The Fed chair nomination reversed part of the dollar-debasement trade and removed a tail-risk that had driven frothy EM moves.
- Jonny Goulden warns markets can have short-term pullbacks even within a positive medium-term EM outlook.
Growth Surprises Are Overbought
- Anezka Christovova highlights extremely elevated growth surprise and forecast revision indicators across EM that historically mean-revert.
- She cautions these indicators are already consensus and can decline from current lofty levels.
Tight Spreads With Few Spike Triggers
- Ben Ramsey says EM credit spreads sit at historically tight levels but identifies few clear drivers for a near-term spike wider.
- He expects spread stability to persist as recession risk remains elusive and yields still compensate investors.