Mehdi Unfiltered Are Israel and the US Trying To Start a Civil War in Iran?
Mar 5, 2026
Ali Vaez, Iran affairs expert and director at the International Crisis Group, gives a concise, on-the-ground take. He discusses reports of US/Israeli contacts with Kurdish and border groups. He outlines why air strikes alone cannot topple Iran and the conditions that could spark state collapse or armed internal conflict. He maps possible power vacuums and who might negotiate with external powers.
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Arming Minorities To Distract Iran
- The U.S. and Israel have been arming and engaging Kurdish and Balochi separatist groups to force Iran to focus inward.
- Ali Vaez notes Israeli arms flowed to groups on Iran's eastern border and the tactic aims to degrade Tehran's external projection by creating internal fires.
Airstrikes Alone Won't Topple Iran
- Top-down regime decapitation by airpower alone is unlikely because Iran's security apparatus is large and decentralized.
- Vaez cites the IRGC (≈200,000), Basij militia (~1,000,000) and past brutal small-arms massacres as evidence air strikes can't easily collapse repression.
Prepare For Surgical Operations Not Full Invasion
- Expect limited, targeted U.S. special operations rather than a full-scale invasion; planers may seek to neutralize missile/drone assets or secure specific sites.
- Vaez outlines plausible missions: strikes to protect Strait of Hormuz shipping, seizure of HEU caches, embedding special forces with Kurdish fighters.