Doug Duncan projects mortgage lending to climb to a 17-year high in 2020

Jul 22, 2020

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In today’s Daily Download episode, HousingWire covers a forecast from Fannie Mae’s Chief Economist Doug Duncan that projects mortgage lending is set to top $3 trillion this year.

For some background on the story, here’s a summary of the article:

Mortgage lending is set to reach $3.14 trillion this year, the highest since 2003, as the annual average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan falls to a record low of 3.2%, according to Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae. Next year, rates are heading even lower, he said.

In 2021, the annual average rate probably will fall to 2.8%, said Duncan, who spoke to HousingWire via a video conference call on Monday in an exclusive interview. That would be the lowest ever recorded.

Duncan said his forecast is based on the open-ended commitment by the Federal Reserve to purchase $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities, coupled with the expectations that “margins” – meaning the difference in the yields for 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage bonds – will continue to shrink as the lending industry adjusts to doing business amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mortgage rates are set by bond investors who decide what yield, or return on investment, they’re willing to accept. Market-watchers compare rates between long-term Treasuries and MBS to see what kind of “risk premium” lenders are adding, meaning a buffer to protect profits in case some loans go bad or other problems arise.

Following the main story, HousingWire covers a report from The Mortgage Bankers Association that claims the forbearance rate has dropped to a 2-month low and a report from Unison that shows a direct correlation between a housing market’s performance and its economic resilience.

The Daily Download examines the most compelling articles reported from the HousingWire newsroom. Each afternoon, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsroom that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted by the HW team and produced by Alcynna Lloyd.

HousingWire articles covered in this episode: