The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: Ukraine After Year One of Trump’s Second Term, with Eric Ciaramella and Francis Farrell
Feb 17, 2026
Francis Farrell, Kyiv Independent frontline reporter with on-the-ground battlefield perspective, and Eric Ciaramella, Carnegie senior fellow and former U.S. intelligence official, discuss post-2024 expectations for Ukraine. They cover current frontline dynamics, changes in munitions and intelligence aid, Europe’s rearmament and funding role, negotiation prospects, and risks of battlefield collapse in 2026.
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Battlefield Momentum Decides Peace
- Battlefield momentum remains the decisive factor for any negotiated peace.
- If Ukraine holds, Russia may overextend; if Ukraine weakens, concessions follow.
Drones Shift Tactical Economics
- Small FPV drones now cause the majority of casualties and cheapen tactical firepower.
- Indigenous Ukrainian drone production reduces dependence on U.S. artillery supplies.
Aid Flows Recast, Not Fully Cut Off
- The Pearl scheme lets the U.S. claim Europe pays while intelligence sharing continues.
- Contracted Biden-era deliveries still provide a multi-year tail of equipment to Ukraine.