The Dividend Cafe Wednesday - March 11, 2026
Mar 11, 2026
A market recap from West Palm Beach covers volatility tied to Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Rising Brent and WTI prices and their potential boost to inflation are explored. Discussion of shelter’s large CPI weight and signs of cooling rents. Thoughts on a new Fed chair planning rate cuts amid balance sheet shrinkage and why AI and labor trends matter. Clarification on fees for alternative funds.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Volatility, Not A Major Market Decline
- Markets were mostly benign despite geopolitical volatility tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, with the Dow down ~289 points, S&P flat, Nasdaq slightly up.
- The dominant theme is volatility rather than a large directional sell-off, driven chiefly by energy-price swings.
Oil Moves Can Quickly Shift Reported Inflation
- February CPI was close to target with headline +0.3% and core +0.2% bringing year-over-year to 2.4% and 2.5% respectively.
- Rapid oil moves (WTI +~20%, Brent +~15%) could have lifted year-over-year CPI by ~0.3–0.4% to ~2.8–2.9% if they were reflected in the print.
Shelter Cooling Offsets Energy-Driven Inflation
- Shelter is a large, lagging component of CPI and is now showing signs of cooling with rent measures rising only 0.1–0.2% in February.
- Shelter carries ~35% CPI weight versus energy's ~7%, so cooling shelter can offset energy-driven inflation spikes materially.