Oil & Gas in 2025: $76 Oil, LNG Growth & Trump’s Impact

From rising LNG demand and an oversupply of oil to shifting geopolitics under Trump 2.0, 2025 presents a complex landscape for the global energy sector. How will these trends reshape O&G markets and strategies?

In this episode of Enterprise Explores, Emma Richards, Associate Director of Oil and Gas at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, shares insights from BMI’s 2025 oil and gas outlook.

Here are some AI-generated highlights of key areas covered in the conversation:

- Oil Market Oversupply: Increased production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers is putting downward pressure on prices, with U.S., Brazil, and Canada driving significant supply growth.

- LNG’s Bright Spot: Why global LNG capacity is surging, driven by projects in MENA, Africa, and the Americas, and how geopolitics—especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict—has spurred demand.

- Developed vs. Emerging Markets: Developed market oil demand peaked nearly 20 years ago, while emerging markets like India and Southeast Asia are now key growth engines.

- Trump 2.0’s Role: Regulatory easing in the U.S. could benefit smaller producers while reshaping global competition, with potential risks tied to erratic foreign policy decisions.

- SOE vs. IOC Strategies: State-owned enterprises are leading in both traditional and low-carbon investments, while publicly listed firms face shareholder pressures to prioritise dividends over growth.

- The Energy Transition: Companies are navigating dual pressures—meeting immediate economic demands while strategically positioning themselves for a lower-carbon future.

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