“Not Until May” The Real Timeline for Controlling the Strait of Hormuz | Nadia Martin Wiggen Svelland Capital

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Mar 23, 2026

Nadia Martin Wiggen, Director at Svelland Capital and commodities and shipping specialist. She explains why May is the realistic timeline for control of the Strait of Hormuz. Ships are rerouting and Asia is scrambling for May cargoes. Refining margins and refined‑product hoarding keep a persistent bid under oil. Regional shortages would hit Asia, Australia, and emerging markets hardest.

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INSIGHT

China's Export Ban Removed Global Spare Refining Capacity

China imposed a refined product export ban early in the crisis, removing a major global spare refining capacity and prompting other Asian buyers to hoard.
Nadia says China’s ban shifted the spare product cushion away from the world exactly when needed.

ADVICE

Plan For May As The Real Earliest Reopening Date

Prepare for a May timeline to reopen the Strait rather than weeks; military operations and mine-clearing take months to ensure safe commercial flow.
Nadia highlights required assets: carriers, continuous air presence, coastal bases and mine-clearing to secure shipping.

INSIGHT

$100 Brent Is A Near-Term Floor That Can Rise With Duration

Nadia views around $100 Brent as a near-term floor while the crisis persists, with the floor rising the longer disruption continues.
She points to $166 Dubai-Oman physical, and notes divergence between paper Brent and physical May-loading prices.

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