Unprecedented, Unusual, Challenging Economy More Bifurcated Than Ever | Michael Kantrowitz

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Jul 13, 2025

Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, introduces his innovative HOPE framework for assessing economic health. He delves into the evolving landscape of the post-COVID economy, highlighting the stark disparities in sectors like housing. The conversation covers consumer behavior shifts, emphasizing how affluent spending is slowing. Kantrowitz also discusses the intricate ties between market indices and fundamentals, urging a strategic approach in navigating today's bifurcated economic environment. Tune in for insights on what 2025 may hold!

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INSIGHT

Consumer Resilience Amid Spending Shifts

The affluent consumer's spending is starting to tighten but unemployed levels remain stable, supporting overall resilience.
Government transfers like Social Security provide income stability, reducing consumer spending volatility.

INSIGHT

Economic Softening Mixed Signals

Housing and employment are expected to continue softening, while manufacturing might benefit from tax incentives.
The economic backdrop is mixed with no strong positive tilt, maintaining softness without severe decline.

INSIGHT

Stalled Earnings Limit Market Breadth

Earnings revisions and manufacturing activity have stalled in a tight range since 2022, limiting broad market breadth.
Positive momentum remains insufficient to drive a broad economic or market recovery yet.

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Today's guest is best known for his HOPE framework, a highly effective way to measure the health of the economy, and tell whether it's getting stronger or weaker.As we enter the second half of 2025 -- with momentum stocks stumbling while the markets remain richly valued near all-time highs -- what does his framework tell us 2025 has in store?To find out, we have the good fortune to speak today with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist & managing director at Piper Sandler.

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