Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Danielle DiMartino Booth
Feb 6, 2026
Claudia Sahm, economist and founder of New Century Advisors known for labor-market and policy analysis. She discusses the importance of the delayed jobs report and how payroll benchmarks have shifted. She weighs in on Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and institutional tensions at the central bank. Short takes on contrasts between academic and practitioner approaches to Fed policy.
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Jobs Report Revisions Could Reset Norms
- The upcoming Wednesday jobs report and revisions matter more than usual because the October report was delayed by a brief shutdown.
- Claudia Sahm warns revisions could reset what we consider "normal" monthly payroll gains.
What Counts As "Normal" Job Growth
- Past normal nonfarm payrolls shifted from ~150,000 to under 100,000 due to structural factors like immigration.
- Tom Keene raises the question whether normal could fall as low as 25,000 monthly jobs.
Warsh's Tough Rhetoric Could Require Reconciliation
- Claudia Sahm has written extensively about Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh and his critiques of Fed staff.
- Tom Keene recounts Warsh's tough rhetoric and suggests he may need to mend fences if appointed.