The ACID Capitalist Podcast Acid Breath: Any Fool Could Make Money in Gold
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Oct 18, 2025 The discussion dives into the intriguing impact of a government shutdown on markets and the subtle shifts in treasury yields. Gold's surprising rise is explored, raising questions about trust and speculation, while the Sinclair thesis draws connections between US debt and gold pricing. Demographic changes and their effect on Fed policies are uncovered, revealing distorted economic models. Bitcoin is also presented as an alternative hedge as markets prove to be anything but predictable in these tumultuous times.
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When Official Data Goes Quiet
- The US government shutdown paused data releases, leaving markets to interpret distortions as data.
- Hendry sees silence in official data as an opportunity to read market whispers and real-world signals.
Regional Banks Reveal Credit Stress
- Regional bank earnings revealed rising provisions and sour auto and credit-card loans, signaling credit-cycle stress beyond 2023.
- Hendry links this to rapid demographic shifts and stretched underwriting standards in consumer credit.
Neutral Rate May Be Lower Than Thought
- Steve Miran argues the neutral interest rate is lower than Fed dots imply, risking an unnecessary recession if rates stay too high.
- Hendry agrees demographic shocks (fast migration) distorted housing and Fed models, biasing policy too restrictive.