FEAR & GREED | Business News Gold boomed in 2025 - so are investors too late?
Jan 5, 2026
Lachlan Halloway, an equity market strategist at Morningstar, dives into the explosive gold market of 2025. He discusses what drives gold cycles and the historical context behind peaks. Lachlan warns that despite soaring prices, Morningstar's long-run forecast suggests gold's value could decline to $2,000. He explains key indicators of a market peak and evaluates whether gold miners still offer investment potential, ultimately finding them generally overpriced, with a few exceptions like Newmont and Barrick.
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Morningstar's Long‑Run Gold Valuation
- Morningstar's $2,000/oz long-run gold forecast is a valuation based on supply and demand five years out.
- It underpins gold-miner valuations and is not a short-term price prediction.
Gold Rises With Policy Unease
- Gold rallies during periods of broad investor unease about policy, inflation and geopolitical risks.
- When policy stabilises, historical runs in gold have typically cooled off.
Sentiment Shows Peak Frenzy
- Indicators like the gold-oil and gold-silver ratios and ETF flows signal sentiment-driven peaks.
- ETF inflows closely track the gold price and can reverse quickly during unwinds.