In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine

Jan 11, 2026
Explore the complexities of security guarantees for Ukraine and why a multinational force might hinder peace efforts. Delve into the importance of credible deterrents over mere rhetoric, with a focus on sustaining Ukrainian defenses. Discover the need for robust military training, integrated air protection, and enhanced domestic arms production. Mark Galeotti outlines strategic clarity, long-term funding, and the challenges posed by NATO membership and nuclear ambitions. Tune in for insights on navigating the delicate balance of geopolitical support and operational realities.
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ADVICE

Prefer Production Capacity Over Stockpiles

  • Build production capacity for drones rather than big obsolete stockpiles to avoid rapid obsolescence.
  • Keep factories active by ordering from Ukraine and Europe to maintain upgrade cycles.
ADVICE

Pre-Position Critical Stocks Abroad

  • Pre-position ammunition and spare parts in NATO territory near Ukraine for rapid wartime resupply.
  • Store aircraft and key assets abroad so they survive any Russian first-strike attempts.
ADVICE

Use NATO-Based Integrated Air Shield

  • Implement an integrated air-protection zone from NATO bases that intercepts threats without manned NATO aircraft over Ukraine.
  • Use remote intercepts and drones to reduce escalation risks while protecting Ukrainian airspace.
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