Next Africa Why the Iran War Could Shock African Economies
Mar 5, 2026
Yvonne Mhango, a Bloomberg Economics Africa economist who models macro impacts, and Stephen Stapczynski, a Bloomberg energy reporter who tracks oil and gas markets, discuss rising energy prices and supply risks. They cover sharp moves in jet fuel, shipping and gas. They map which African countries gain or suffer, the role of chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and how price paths hinge on conflict duration.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Market Priced In Possibility Of A Strike
- Oil prices had been rising steadily from late December into February as traders priced in a possible strike on Iran amid military buildup and tense negotiations.
- Stephen Stapczynski noted markets reacted to rhetoric and actions like the State of the Union, which pushed expectations that a strike might occur.
Gas And Refined Fuels Reacted Faster Than Brent
- Natural gas and refined product markets jumped more sharply than Brent, with Asian and European gas benchmarks up over 50% in three days.
- Stephen Stapczynski highlighted Singapore jet fuel highs, rising ship charter rates, and Qatar LNG plant closure as key drivers.
Regional Infrastructure Hits Amplify Supply Risk
- The Strait of Hormuz is critical but the conflict widened risk by hitting regional infrastructure in Qatar, UAE and Saudi, raising concerns about damaged supply rather than just transit disruption.
- Stephen Stapczynski warned damaged refineries or LNG trains could take days to months to restart, increasing risk premia.