Robert Wright's Nonzero Iran War II (Robert Wright & Joshua Landis)
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Feb 24, 2026 
Joshua Landis, Middle East scholar and co-director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, outlines the strategic logic and political pressures shaping threats to Iran. He discusses regional deterrence, Iran's possible responses, risks of regime-change, oil disruptions, and how limited strikes can trap decision makers into escalation.
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Political Motive Behind U.S. Pressure On Iran
- The U.S. push against Iran is driven more by political opportunity and Israeli aims than clear U.S. national security needs.
- Joshua Landis says Israel views present weakness as a rare chance to pursue regime change after degrading Iran's proxies and nuclear sites.
Regime Collapse Would Hurt U.S. Interests
- Regime change in Iran would likely harm U.S. interests by creating large-scale instability and refugee flows.
- Landis warns a 90 million population makes collapse far more consequential than Iraq or Libya, worrying U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Limited Strikes Create Pressure To Escalate
- The Trump administration lacks a clear plan beyond escalating strikes, and earlier limited strikes created political pressure to finish the job.
- Landis says the initial 12-day campaign made walking away politically costly for Trump.