The DSR Network The Daily Blast: Trump Outbursts over Oil Shock Go Off Rails as His Aides Quietly Panic
Mar 13, 2026
Nicholas Grossman, international relations professor and security and geopolitics expert, breaks down the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and why the IEA calls it the largest global oil disruption. He explains why a 20% supply drop ripples through industry and inflation. They also discuss U.S. policy constraints, rising alarm in the administration, and Iran’s strategic leverage and options ahead.
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Strait Closure Triggers Broad Economic Cascades
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz creates systemic economic shock because oil underpins industry, agriculture, and shipping insurance, causing cascading price and supply effects.
- Nicholas Grossman warns a 20% supply decline means shortages, refinery and tanker disruptions, and hard-to-restart production that quickly raises consumer prices.
Geography Gives Iran Lasting Leverage
- Iran's geographic advantage gives it outsized leverage: it can threaten shipping and insurance to keep the Strait effectively closed without sustaining massive direct losses.
- Grossman explains the US lacks sufficient forces in-region to forcibly and quickly reopen the Strait, making prolonged disruption plausible.
Bullying Fails When The Enemy Gets A Vote
- The crisis reveals limits of Trump's bullying strategy: power cannot wholly neutralize an adversary that 'gets a vote' and resists in asymmetric ways.
- Grossman contrasts earlier, easier operations (Venezuela) with Iran, where opposition and allies shape outcomes unpredictably.