The Mining Paradox: Record Low CapEx Just Created A Generational Buy, Here's Why | Tavi Costa

Apr 1, 2026

Tavi Costa, founder and CEO of Azuria Capital and macro/natural-resources investor, warns of a 1970s-style stagflation as commodities surge while policymakers stay constrained. He explains why record-low mining capex creates a generational buying opportunity, outlines his miner-selection criteria, and names specific stocks and positioning for a hard-asset breakout.

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INSIGHT

Debt Levels Make 1970s Style Policy Impossible Today

High sovereign debt limits how far central banks can raise rates without breaking the system.
Costa compares today's constraints to the 1970s but says modern debt levels mean rates can't be hiked like then, forcing policy toward lower rates and looser money.

INSIGHT

CPI Masks Real Cost Pressures On Households

Official CPI understates real inflation because commodity and energy price spikes hit lower-income budgets much harder.
Costa notes fuel can be 15–25% of lower-income budgets and rising energy plus food costs will transmit into real-world inflation and unrest.

INSIGHT

Policy Toolbox Favors Inflationary Responses

Policymakers have inflationary tools (debase currency, restructure debt, yield curve control) they may use when rates rise, which would boost hard assets.
Costa warns these tools are likely because governments will prioritise avoiding system stress over fighting inflation.

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Jerome Powell claims inflation expectations are anchored, but skyrocketing commodity prices are telling a much darker story. Tavi Costa joins Jeremy Szafron to break down why the Federal Reserve has lost control of the inflation narrative and why a historic hard asset breakout has just begun.

In this Kitco News interview, Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital details why the global economy is entering a 1970s style stagflation cycle. Costa explains that with federal debt at record levels, the central bank cannot raise rates to fight the current energy and supply shocks, leaving them entirely trapped. He exposes the massive divergence between official CPI data and the real cost of raw materials, warning that this inflation impulse will only accelerate.

Beyond the macro picture, Costa reveals exactly how he is positioning his own portfolio to capitalize on this massive market disconnect. He explains why the recent pullback in gold and silver was a generational buying opportunity and shares the exact criteria he uses to pick mining equities. Costa even names the specific mining stocks he is buying right now, arguing that record low capital expenditure across the industry has created the ultimate asymmetric trade for investors.

Recorded March 30 2026

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Chapter Timestamps:
00:00 The Fed inflation trap and commodity breakout
01:31 Why central banks cannot stop this supply shock
03:32 The US debt crisis and the return of the 1970s
06:01 The CPI illusion vs official inflation data
09:35 Will rising energy costs trigger social unrest?
13:13 The hidden buyers of US Treasuries
16:32 Sovereign gold selling and emerging markets
19:50 Why the mining cycle is nowhere near a peak
23:42 The structural deficit in copper and silver
31:13 Why Tavi Costa is buying the gold and silver dip
35:50 Top mining stock picks Orla Mining and Aura Minerals
41:00 Final thoughts on hard asset positioning

#Gold #Inflation #TaviCosta
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The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.

Disclaimer:
The videos are not intended to provide trading advice, and the views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Kitco Metals Inc. Kitco News, its anchors, producers, and reporters are not responsible in any way for the performance or actions of any sponsor, advertiser or affiliate of Kitco News. In no event will Kitco and its employees be held liable for any indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the content in this video.