46: Trump's Trade Roadmap: From Hidden Plan to Radical Reality

17 snips

Apr 21, 2025

Dive into the intriguing trade roadmap crafted by Stephen Miran for the Trump era. Explore potential futures—from global cooperation that could revive manufacturing to the real risks of recession and inflation. The discussion highlights the intricacies of U.S. trade policy, the dollar's dual role, and the impact of foreign sell-offs on American assets. Tactics used in trade negotiations are examined, revealing a calculated approach amidst aggressive rhetoric. Finally, the unmatched manufacturing strength of China complicates U.S. economic strategies.

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INSIGHT

Sovereign Wealth Fund for Currency Strategy

A sovereign wealth fund using revalued gold could counteract foreign currency manipulation.
This fund could be used for currency intervention but carries risks like retaliatory actions by other countries.

ANECDOTE

NAFTA to USMCA Anecdote

Trump used extreme rhetoric and tariffs against Mexico before renegotiating NAFTA into USMCA.
The final deal modestly improved U.S. manufacturing rules but largely maintained the status quo.

ANECDOTE

Trump-China Phase One Deal Story

Trump’s phase one China trade deal followed noisy threats but resulted in modest agreements on IP protections and purchases.
The deal was a small win-win rather than the zero-sum game feared earlier.

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Months before trade policy was on anyone's radar, Stephen Miran—now Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump—quietly published "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." In this episode, Ben and Cardiff dive into Miran’s roadmap and assess how Trump's policies in practice have diverged from Miran’s original vision.

Ben and Cardiff explore three key scenarios for the future trajectory:

Best Case: International dealmaking leads to a breakthrough, reducing tariffs globally, restoring trade relations, and strengthening US manufacturing sectors.
Base Case: A partial rollback of tariffs prevents catastrophic damage, yet still triggers an economic slowdown, accompanied by an interim inflation shock.
Worst Case: Continued tariff escalation triggers a severe recession, persistent stagflation, and prolonged economic and geopolitical turmoil.

The episode concludes with "surprise scenarios" that could rejuvenate growth despite an adverse economic environment. The hosts emphasize the high stakes and overwhelming uncertainty inherent in America's current economic trajectory.

For those who want to read the full, original roadmap:

Stephen Miran, A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, November 2024
https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

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For a deeper dive into these insights and more, be sure to listen to the full episode of the Onward podcast.

Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.

Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise. Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.

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