Bloomberg Surveillance Stocks Near All-Time High on Iran Peace Prospects
12 snips
Apr 15, 2026 
David Sowerby, portfolio manager focused on equities and stock picks. Stephanie Roth, chief economist with macro and Fed expertise. Patrick Murphy, former Under Secretary of the Army advising on geopolitical risk. Dean Curnutt, options and volatility specialist. They explore volatility and crude oil’s market role. They discuss Strait of Hormuz blockade risks and diplomatic limits of military action. They cover inflation channels, labor dynamics, and small-cap and AI-related stock themes.
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Vol Collapse Fueled By Ceasefire Hopes And Mechanical Flows
- VIX collapsed from ~31 to ~18 as ceasefire hopes and crude selloff reduced implied volatility.
- Dean Curnutt highlights mechanical flows like CTAs rebuying and hedge sellers adding fuel that amplified the equity rally.
Sell Expensive Option Hedges Quickly When VIX Drops
- Do consider selling expensive option hedges quickly if implied volatility collapses to recoup remaining value.
- Dean Curnutt warns time decay and falling implied vol create a double whammy that forces hedge liquidation into rising markets.
Benchmark Pressure Pushes Reweighting Despite Hedging Needs
- Managers balance benchmark risk vs insurance; many re-weight to avoid underperforming the S&P while still seeking protection.
- Curnutt notes a 5% one-month 1-month 5% OTM put cost near 55 bps, about 25% cheaper than pre-war levels.
