Unchained How to Trade Prediction Markets Without an Opinion on the Event - Ep. 979
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Dec 13, 2025 Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research and expert in crypto trading strategies, dives into the evolving world of prediction markets. He outlines why these markets are still in their early stages and discusses the migration of crypto traders toward them. Markus shares insights on Polymarket and Kalshi, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. He also reveals ten unique trading strategies that allow for successful predictions without previous biases and emphasizes the importance of the collective wisdom from market participants.
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Get Ready For The POLY Airdrop
- Prepare for Polymarket's POLY airdrop by trading and opening accounts early to qualify.
- Airdrops can meaningfully boost user growth and align holders as promoters of the platform.
Expiry Changes Everything
- Prediction contracts have definitive expiries, so timing matters far more than in spot crypto.
- Missing an expiry can turn a correct view into a total loss on a market bet.
Exploit Near-Certain Endgame Trades
- Hunt near-certain endgame trades where outcomes are effectively decided to earn outsized annualized yields.
- Run probability models (Monte Carlo) to find mathematically improbable outcomes priced too cheaply.