HousingWire Daily The economic wild cards that could lower mortgage rates
Mar 2, 2026
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst who tracks mortgage and housing trends, offers sharp, data-driven takes. He explores why the 10-year yield fell under 4% despite hot inflation prints. He lays out market wild cards that could push rates down this spring and the opposite forces that could send them up. He also explains how bond markets often move before the Fed and which scenarios seem most probable.
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Why Rates Are Unlikely To Return To 7%
- Mortgage rates are unlikely to spike back to 7% absent a major economic shock because market-implied spreads and current yield levels limit upside.
- Logan Mohtashami cites the 10-year yield hovering near key support (~3.80–4.00%) and compressed mortgage spreads as the stabilizing forces.
Market Shocks Can Force Yields Lower
- A market-driven shock (stock selloff, credit stress, tariffs) can push the 10-year yield below the 3.80% support and drive mortgage rates lower.
- Mohtashami points to 2024 precedents where weak jobs data and market fear caused a flight to safety that lowered yields.
Don't Assume Rates Will Keep Falling Without A Shock
- Expect limits to downside in yields unless clear signs of economic breakdown appear; don't assume indefinite rate drops without market events.
- Mohtashami cautions that low jobless claims and steady industrial data mean the Fed may resist large cuts absent shocks.