Mr. M Podcast | Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli Bitcoin: Why $111,850 Is Key
Nov 12, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Bitcoin analyst Plan C shares his insights on the current market dynamics. He explains the significance of the $111,850 price level and its implications for short-term trading. The conversation delves into ETF openings, investor sentiment after recent price dips, and the potential for bull and bear scenarios. Plan C also highlights the importance of the 50-week EMA as a key support level, the role of on-chain metrics, and cautions against being sidelined in this volatile environment.
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Bear-Case Drawdown Is Likely Moderate
- If a new bear market starts from the recent ATH, historical 80% drawdowns are less likely without a blow-off euphoric top.
- Plan C and Maurizio estimate a 40–50% drawdown as a plausible base or worst-case scenario respectively.
Systemic Failures Drove Last Cycle's Crash
- Past structural failures (FTX, Celsius) drove extreme lows previously; absent similar systemic events, deep capitulations are unlikely.
- The current cycle shows more consolidation and tested support around prior ATH levels.
Position For Low-70s Floor, Manage Tail Risk
- Treat the low 70s as a plausible bull-market floor and the mid-50s as a tail risk; position sizing should reflect those scenarios.
- Avoid assuming extreme 60–80% drops unless price first reaches euphoric top conditions.