Shift Key with Robinson Meyer Shift Key Classic: Have China’s Carbon Emissions Peaked?
Nov 12, 2025
Lauri Myllyvirta, co-founder of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, dives deep into China’s emissions landscape. He discusses whether the nation’s carbon emissions have peaked and contrasts its booming renewables growth with persistent coal use. Lauri reveals how rising industrial demand and a complex energy sector are critical drivers of emissions trends. They explore the electrification of transport and its benefits for urban air quality, along with the challenges in construction and steel sectors. Can China navigate its ambitious energy transition?
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Coal Builds From Dispatch And Redundancy Issues
- China built coal capacity partly as an insurance against perceived capacity shortages and rigid cross-province dispatch rules.
- That created redundancy and prompted provinces to keep authorizing more coal plants.
Administrative Reforms Cut Curtailment
- China reduced wind and solar curtailment a decade ago even as capacity multiplied through administrative measures.
- Grid management improvements, not pure markets, enabled greater renewable utilization.
Build Transmission Before Siting Projects
- Coordinate transmission and siting via large "clean energy bases" to speed renewables deployment.
- Prioritize building transmission first because grid connection is the biggest hurdle for projects.