The a16z Show AI, Supply Chains, and the Future of Economic Power
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Mar 18, 2026 
Jacob Helberg, technology policy expert and author of The Wires of War, digs into why hardware and supply chains now shape economic power. He explores what it takes to lead in AI, from model quality to global adoption. The conversation also touches on tariffs, reindustrialization, compute as a new economic fuel, and the geopolitics of U.S., Europe, and the Middle East.
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The Three Conditions For Winning The AI Race
- Helberg says winning the AI race requires three conditions: best models, largest global market share, and secure supply chains.
- He warns exquisite models alone are insufficient if nobody uses them and if one fragile component can halt the whole system.
Why AI Leadership Needs IP Protection And Exports
- Helberg says model distillation threatens AI economics by letting others copy capabilities after companies spend huge sums on training.
- He pairs that with an AI Export Program and Pax Silica, using diplomacy, chip support, offtake agreements, and joint ventures to expand adoption and harden supply chains.
Tariffs As A Tool For Reindustrialization
- Helberg frames tariffs as a national-security recalibration meant to reverse decades of plant closures, job losses, and persistent trade deficits.
- He cites 66,000 lost factories, over 2 million lost manufacturing jobs, and says post-Liberation Day deficits, especially with China, started falling while CapEx rose.
