Rational Security The “Deeply Iran-ic” Edition
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Apr 9, 2026 
Tyler McBrien, Lawfare managing editor who deciphers U.S. policy constraints. Daniel Byman, Middle East security expert with deep Iran knowledge. They unpack a surprising two-week ceasefire and its vague terms. They discuss Strait of Hormuz transit conditions and regional winners and losers. They parse incendiary presidential rhetoric, legality concerns, and how domestic politics and munitions shape strategic choices.
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Gulf States Will Hedge After This Conflict
- Gulf states face a dilemma: increased dependence on the U.S. for defense but rising incentives to hedge toward China and others.
- Attacks on regional allies exposed limits of U.S. protection and pushed Gulf states to diversify security partners.
China Wins Diplomatic Leverage, Not Immediate Military Influence
- China gains political capital as a mediator even without hard-security reach in the short term.
- Beijing will market itself as a consultative peacemaker while its navy’s ability to project power remains limited for years.
Do Not Use Infrastructure Wipeouts As A Strategy
- Avoid targeting entire civilian infrastructure because mass attacks on power plants risk violating international humanitarian law.
- Legal experts flagged that destroying all power plants would cross into collective punishment and possibly genocide territory.
