A 'Very Precarious' Time For Markets: AI Bubble, Credit Risks & Insider Selling | Jesse Felder

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Oct 9, 2025

Jesse Felder, a macro analyst and founder of The Felder Report, discusses the precarious state of the market amid AI-driven highs and consumer struggles. He raises alarms about the potential for an AI bubble burst to trigger disinflation or deflation. Jesse highlights signs of credit stress and insider selling as market warning indicators. He offers investment advice, stressing the need for agility, diversification, and the importance of broad real-asset exposure, including oil and gold, as economic pressures mount.

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ANECDOTE

AI Build-Out Echoes Past Overbuilds

Jesse compares the AI infrastructure build to historical overbuilds like dark fiber and railroads that later proved valuable. He notes trillions spent on CapEx today while revenues remain in the tens of billions.

ADVICE

Be Nimble In A Blow-Off Market

If you remain long in this market, be nimble and ready to exit quickly when conditions reverse. Prepare hedges and have 'happy feet' to avoid being trapped in a blow-off top.

INSIGHT

Insider Selling Signals Future Weakness

Insider selling historically leads economic slowdowns by roughly two years and is currently near record levels, implying future earnings weakness. Private-equity founders and managers have been heavy sellers, signaling potential credit stress ahead.

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Wall Street is partying hard right now with stocks at all-time highs.Unless a significant correction happens soon, the S&P will put in its third year of double-digit returns in a row.But pressures are building.The AI juggernaut, which is driving so much of the US economy and the market's rise these days, increasingly appears to be in bubble territory.While on the other hand, a large percentage of American consumers are increasingly struggling under the high cost of living.How will these pressures resolve in 2026?To discuss, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.

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