Bond Market Tariff Signals and the Outlook for US Growth

24 snips

Apr 17, 2025

Guest

Amanda Lynam

In this discussion, Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at BlackRock, delves into signals from the bond market, revealing whether recent market tumult is a sign of deeper issues. Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, tackles the challenges of workforce training and the impact of manufacturing regulations. Meanwhile, Whitney Tilson shares insights from his NYC mayoral candidacy and policy ideas aimed at boosting economic growth. Together, they explore critical intersections of finance, manufacturing, and politics.

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ADVICE

Defensive Posture Amid Tariffs

Stay defensive in portfolios amid tariff-driven short-term economic pain.
Use stable sectors and private credit while waiting to deploy cash for long-term opportunity.

INSIGHT

Align With US Policy Focus

Focus on domestic companies benefiting from US policy, like utilities and consumer staples.
Semiconductors and big tech face challenges from tariffs and export controls.

INSIGHT

Modern Manufacturing Requires New Skills

Manufacturing is modern and technology-driven, needing new workforce skills.
Investment in training and supportive economic policies are key to sector growth.

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Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 17th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amanda Lynam, Head of Macro Credit Research at Blackrock, talks about signals from the bond market, corporate credit spreads, and whether the market just experienced a tariff tantrum or whether deeper problems lie underneath. Following bond market turmoil triggered by the announcement of broad US levies earlier this month, investors are focusing more on developments in country-specific trade negotiations.
2) Anastasia Amoroso, Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, brings us into the market open and discusses her outlook for growth in equities and the US economy. President Donald Trump said there was “big progress” in talks to strike a deal for Japan, which stocks responded to positively in pre-market trading ahead of the holiday weekend.
3) Jay Timmons, CEO and President of National Association of Manufacturers, joins to discuss manufacturing regulations and red tape, strengthening the manufacturing workforce, and whether tariffs and other Trump admin policies could actually revitalize manufacturing labor. Manufacturing output increased 5.1% in the first quarter, the most since late 2021, as customers boosted orders before tariffs hikes took effect. Despite the gain, manufacturing faces headwinds from higher material costs, trade policy uncertainty, and tariffs, which may impact production and investment plans this year and next year.
4) Ali Mortell, Director of Research at Blue Rose Research, joins to discuss Blue Rose's presentation that's made waves through Democratic politics, highlighting support President Trump garnered in 2024, how Democrats could claw back some voters, and what is the identity of the Democratic party.
5) Whitney Tilson, former hedge fund manager and NYC Mayoral candidate, discusses his candidacy and policy proposals, how he plans to gain support over Cuomo and Adams, and what the identity of the Democratic party should be. Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman donated $250,000 to a super PAC supporting former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo in New York City's mayoral race after Ackman hosted a fundraiser for Tilson's bid earlier this year.
6) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ story Costco's Kirkland brand bringing customers to the beer aisle and a New York Times report on possible signs of life on a distant planet.

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