The Jacob Shapiro Podcast The Black Sea Isn’t Quiet Anymore
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Jan 19, 2026 Andrey Sizov, a Black Sea agricultural markets analyst and founder of Sovicorn, dives into the complexities of global grain trade influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He reveals why disruption fears haven’t fully materialized yet but are changing with recent attacks on shipping. The discussion explores Turkey's crucial role in the region, implications for U.S. agriculture, and insights on the sunflower market. Sizov also touches on how geopolitical dynamics affect global food security and the intertwined destinies of agriculture and international relations.
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Host's 2022 Grain Panic Confession
- Jacob admits he expected bigger global grain disruptions early in the war and felt silly as markets steadied.
- Andrey recalled early market panic in 2022 that pushed Chicago wheat to unprecedented limit‑up runs.
Escalation May Be Tactical Around Negotiations
- Escalation can be tactical: both sides may raise pressure while negotiating to improve leverage.
- Various stakeholders inside Russia and Ukraine can independently sabotage ceasefire talks, complicating deals.
Closer Positions Make 2026 Deal Plausible
- The odds of a ceasefire rose after political shifts but short‑term breakthrough remains unlikely.
- Kyiv and Moscow positions have converged compared to two years ago, making a 2026 ceasefire plausible but not assured.