Bogleheads On Investing Podcast Safe Spending in Retirement: Bill Bengen on the 4.7% Rule of Thumb
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Mar 29, 2026 Bill Bengen, retirement researcher who created the 4% rule and author of A Richer Retirement, explains updates to safe withdrawal thinking. He discusses how valuation and inflation shape withdrawal rates. He highlights adding small- and micro-cap stocks raising the rule to 4.7%. Practical topics include front-loaded withdrawals, rising equity glide paths, cash buckets, rebalancing, and simple all-in-one fund approaches.
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Avoid Front Loading Retirement Spending
- Avoid heavy front-loading of spending because higher withdrawals in the first 10 years compound into much larger long-term deficits.
- Every percentage point spent more early requires roughly twice the reduction later to stay sustainable.
Longer Horizons Need More Stocks—Within Limits
- Longer withdrawal horizons require higher equity allocations up to a point, but extreme equity levels in early retirement magnify ruin risk.
- Bengen favors ~65% stocks for 30-year plans and higher for longer horizons but warns against too-high early equity.
Raise Equity Over Time To Improve Ruin Odds
- Implement a rising equity glide path: start more conservative in early retirement and increase equities later to improve withdrawal rates.
- Bengen notes it can raise sustainable spending about 0.15%, about $1,500/year per $1M in worst-case tests.
