Russia’s Gambit: Moscow’s Middle East Strategy After Syria and Iran, with Dr. Iulia Joja

In this episode of The Burn Bag, A’ndre Gonawela is joined by Dr. Iulia Joja, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, to examine Russia’s strategy in the Middle East in 2026 following major setbacks in Syria and Iran. The conversation breaks down how Moscow is adapting after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iran’s military losses and internal unrest, and growing U.S. pressure across the region.

Dr. Joja explains how Russia is pursuing a long-term strategy focused on maintaining relevance rather than dominance, using selective military presence, economic engagement, energy diplomacy, and partnerships with regional actors including Iran, Gulf states, and eastern Libya. The episode also explores Russia’s coordination with Iran short of a formal alliance, its ties to regional proxies, and how footholds in Libya and the Red Sea expand Moscow’s leverage over Europe, NATO, and global trade routes.

This discussion offers a clear-eyed assessment of what Russia can realistically achieve in the Middle East, where its limits are, and what Moscow’s evolving approach means for U.S. foreign policy, regional stability, and great-power competition going forward.