Radio National Breakfast What does Iran's weapon stockpile look like?
Mar 26, 2026
Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Centre who studies US defense and drone warfare, breaks down Iran's military picture. She outlines estimates of missiles and launchers. She discusses Iran's operational flexibility, changing attack tempo, drone production and replenishment, and specific threats around the Strait of Hormuz.
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Prewar Ballistic Missile And Drone Estimates
- Israel estimated Iran had about 450–500 ballistic missile launchers and roughly 2,000 ballistic missiles before the strikes.
- Shahed drone counts are uncertain and range from several thousand to possibly tens of thousands, likely closer to the higher end.
Underestimating Dispersal And Durability
- Western estimates may have captured numbers but underestimated Iran's ability to disperse and sustain use of weapons.
- Iran has degraded capacity but retains enough resilience to continue attacks and close strategic routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Volume Isn’t The Point In Iran’s Campaign
- Iran launched very large missile and drone volleys in the first 72 hours, then reduced volume but maintained persistent threat.
- Tehran aims to impose political and economic costs, so small, intermittent launches suffice to disrupt the region.