The Business Times Podcasts S2E7: Fed watch, Japan’s rally, and Indonesia’s record run
Aug 15, 2025
Gary Tan, CEO of Allspring Global Investments, shares his insights on global markets, particularly focusing on U.S. interest rate speculation and Japan's cautious monetary policy amid a stock market rally. He discusses the volatility affecting gold prices and Indonesia's impressive stock market gains driven by foreign investment. Tan emphasizes the importance of quality investments in Japan and outlines optimistic growth forecasts for Singapore, highlighting the economic dynamics at play in Southeast Asia.
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September Cut Priced In, Follow‑Up Uncertain
- Markets price a 98% chance of a 25bp Fed cut in September driven by soft CPI and labor revisions.
- Allspring expects a September cut but is cautious about further cuts beyond that without clearer data.
Don’t Bank On A 150bp Fed Move
- Consider that large multi‑hundred basis‑point cuts are tactical suggestions rather than base case scenarios.
- Position portfolios for a modest near‑term cut (25–50bp) but avoid betting on a full 150bp easing cycle now.
Treasury Remarks Mix Policy And Messaging
- US Treasury public comments on foreign central banks blend economics and geopolitical signalling.
- Such interventions aim to shape narratives and support objectives like stabilising currencies or global imbalances.