The Macro Brief by HSBC Global Research The global economy in 2026
Jan 9, 2026
Janet Henry, Global Chief Economist at HSBC, offers a global macro outlook. She reviews 2025 inflation volatility and trade resilience after tariff shocks. She explores shaky foundations for 2026 growth, the upside and risks of AI, diverging central-bank paths including Japan, and where rates may move next amid Fed leadership risks and inflation expectations.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
How 2025 Front Loading And Payback Shaped Trade
- 2025 was a roller coaster with front-loaded imports as markets anticipated tariffs, then payback in subsequent months.
- Henry recalls January optimism, tariff surprises on Liberation Day, and consensus forecast revisions that ultimately left year-end estimates similar to the start.
Liberation Day Tariffs Matter Less Than Announced
- Despite major tariff announcements on Liberation Day, actual effective US tariff rates are much lower due to exclusions and trade rerouting.
- Janet Henry cites announced rates near 15–16.5% but effective collected tariffs nearer 12–13%, with big exclusions for oil and pharmaceuticals.
Global Growth Relies On Fiscal Support And AI
- Global growth in 2026 looks durable but rests on two fragile pillars: fiscal stimulus and AI-driven investment and exports.
- Janet Henry warns that if AI investment or fiscal support wanes, Asia-led export strength and overall growth could quickly reverse.