Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg Surveillance TV: August 12th, 2025
6 snips
Aug 12, 2025 
Tiffany Wilding, Economist at PIMCO, shares insights on the current Consumer Price Index and what it means for inflation and potential rate cuts in the U.S. Jon Lieber, Head of Research at Eurasia Group, dives into the economic and political implications of President Trump's tariffs as he outlines priorities for a potential second Trump administration. They discuss how inflation dynamics might shape fiscal policies, the balance businesses need to strike amid tariffs, and future consumer spending trends.
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Cuts May Inflate Assets, Not Growth
- Even if the Fed cuts for political reasons, modest easing will likely boost asset markets more than the real economy.
- Kelly expects CPI to peak ~3.5% and remain elevated through mid-2026 before cooling.
Trim Long-Duration Exposure
- Avoid long-duration bond positions as inflation and eventual fiscal stimulus could lift yields.
- Prefer positioning for somewhat higher rates at the long end given persistent inflation risks.
China Seeks Tech Self-Reliance
- China's strategic aim is technological self-reliance and reducing dependence on the U.S. tech stack.
- Export controls and technological development, not diplomacy, will largely determine outcomes.
