Alternate Shots with Richard Haass and John Ellis Tehran, Tariffs, Cartels, & Capacity: Episode 18
Feb 24, 2026
They discuss U.S. military buildup around Iran and whether showy force masks a lack of strategy. They break down a Supreme Court ruling that leaves tariff policy unpredictable. They examine escalating cartel violence in Mexico and the risks it poses north of the border. They touch on public worries about diminishing presidential capacity and end with a light take on Olympic hockey triumphs.
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Episode notes
Regime Change Is Hard Even With Big Strikes
- Even a large strike may fail to achieve regime change because Iran distributed leadership and prepared to absorb blows.
- Haass suggests Iran might outlast or better absorb U.S. actions, complicating day-after scenarios.
High Court Reasserts Congressional Clarity On Tariffs
- The Supreme Court ruled against the administration's tariff authority, emphasizing Congress must be explicit.
- Haass read the majority and Gorsuch concurrence, noting the decision undercut the administration's legal theory.
Prepare For Tariff Unpredictability
- Expect continued tariff unpredictability as the administration explores alternative legal authorities.
- Haass advises businesses and foreign governments will face planning difficulties and should prepare for volatility.