BTC Sessions The Real War Isn’t in Iran — It’s in the US Treasury Market | Luke Gromen & Lyn Alden
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Apr 7, 2026 
Lyn Alden, macro investor and writer on monetary policy and bond markets, and Luke Gromen, macro strategist focused on treasuries, oil, and global reserves, unpack a financial war framing. They discuss how a Hormuz disruption cascades into oil shocks, supply‑chain and food risks, and why stress in the US Treasury market could threaten the dollar’s reserve role. Bitcoin’s place in this turbulence also comes up.
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Supply Shocks Cause Nonlinear Collapses
- Supply shocks are highly nonlinear: short shortages can cause outsized cascading failures across supply chains.
- Luke used branded coffee mug sourcing to show 70% gross self-sufficiency can be 0% functional when a single input is missing.
Duration Determines Global Severity
- Duration matters: two months of Strait closure is manageable; mid-May or longer risks severe global impacts.
- Lyn Alden cites Egypt's energy-led curfews and tripled natural gas bills as early real-world effects.
Cash Flow Breaks Turn Supply Shocks Into Financial Crises
- Financial stress follows physical cash-flow breaks: factory shutdowns reduce cashflows, burst buybacks and buybacks-funded leverage amplify bond market risk.
- US corporations' buybacks increase vulnerability when production stops.