School of War Ep 273: Matthew Kroenig on China’s Nuclear Test
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Feb 9, 2026 Matthew Kroenig, a Georgetown professor and Atlantic Council strategist specializing in nuclear weapons, walks through recent claims of Chinese yield-producing tests. He explains seismic monitoring, how tests can be hidden, the debate over U.S. testing, and the strategic challenge of deterring two peer nuclear powers. Short takes on New START, force sizing, and risks of a renewed arms race.
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China's Secret Nuclear Tests Revealed
- The U.S. publicly revealed intelligence that China conducted underground yield-producing nuclear tests.
- Matthew Kroenig says this signals a new era of nuclear competition with two peer rivals: Russia and China.
Seismic Monitoring And Decoupling Tricks
- International detection relies primarily on seismic monitoring that picks up underground explosions.
- Kroenig explains China likely used decoupling caverns to reduce seismic signals and evade detection.
Lop Nur As The Likely Testing Site
- China has a long-used test site at Lop Nur where suspicious activity was observed.
- Kroenig suggests U.S. intelligence picked up activity there consistent with secret testing.
