Real Vision: Finance & Investing Jeffrey Gundlach -- Waiting for the Next Big Trade
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Nov 14, 2020 
In a captivating discussion, Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and renowned 'Bond King', shares insights on his evolving investment strategies. He emphasizes the importance of patience while navigating today's challenging market landscape. Gundlach warns of potential insolvencies and trends in deflation versus inflation, expressing skepticism about bitcoin. He highlights managing risk and diversifying portfolios amidst uncertainty, while offering a bullish short-term view on the dollar, despite broader concerns of economic weakness.
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Macro-Focused Edge
- Gundlach shifted from security selection to macro allocation as DoubleLine grew and built a disciplined chart-driven process.
- He scores macro calls ~70% by focusing on an 18-month horizon and aligning team decisions around that.
Use An 18‑Month Horizon
- Use an 18-month investment horizon to balance conviction and client patience.
- Longer horizons raise success probability but ignite client impatience; 18 months is Gundlach's sweet spot.
Size Trades By Asset Class
- Size positions by asset class: tiny weights in idiosyncratic mortgage names, ~1% in risky corporates under normal conditions.
- Save capital and go "all in" only on rare beta-trade moments every decade or so.