Bulwark Takes Iran War Consequences: Will Epic Fury be an Epic Failure?
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Mar 15, 2026 
Robert Kagan, foreign-policy scholar and historian at Brookings, offers a crisp take on U.S. strategy in a possible Iran war. He weighs the choice between long-term commitment or rapid withdrawal. He discusses fractured alliances, Europe and energy pressures, risks to Asia and the Gulf, and whether military moves will deter rivals or invite wider instability.
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Asia Loses Defense Assets To Middle East
- The war strains Asian security by diverting forces and spiking oil dependency risks.
- Kagan notes Japan relies on Middle Eastern oil and U.S. forces crucial for Taiwan defense are being redeployed to the Middle East.
China May Read Mixed Signals From Iran Campaign
- The Iran operation gives ambiguous lessons to China about U.S. resolve and capability.
- Kagan says U.S. performance impressed on advanced strike ability but cautions Americans showed caution and stripped Pacific forces, which may encourage Beijing.
Gulf Allies Question U S Reliability
- Gulf states feel betrayed and vulnerable despite opposing the war.
- Kagan explains Gulf economies and tourism are hurt, and their confidence in U.S. protection is shaken, pushing them to consider closer ties with China.