One Rental At A Time THE FED IS LATE AGAIN
Feb 8, 2026
Discussion of real-time inflation measures showing rates under 1%. Debate over shelter CPI and whether official data overstates housing costs. Critique of the central bank for missing timely signals and the need to modernize data with real-time indicators. Review of weakening job-market signals like JOLTS and layoffs. Preview of upcoming economic releases and key corporate earnings.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Real-Time Data Shows Rapid Deflation
- Truflation shows inflation collapsing to well below 1%, implying deflationary pressure across the economy.
- Michael Zuber warns that economy-level deflation historically signals trouble and contradicts Fed narratives.
Shelter Data Masks True Inflation Trend
- Shelter component distortions mask true CPI; using Fed shelter weighting understates actual disinflation.
- Zuber argues Fed methodology (phone surveys) is outdated and causes policy lag with real harm.
Job Openings Signal A Cooling Labor Market
- Job openings have fallen sharply from over 10M to about 6.54M, signaling a cooling labor market.
- Zuber treats this collapse as a leading indicator contradicting claims of a still-strong jobs market.