Hub Podcasts Canadians think crime is getting worse—and they're not wrong
Feb 26, 2026
Dave Snow, associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph who studies criminal justice trends. He explains the violent crime severity index and how it differs from standard crime rates. He highlights where violence is rising, contrasts national and regional patterns, and examines how headline-friendly declines can hide more serious trends.
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Violent Crime Severity Index Weights Seriousness
- The Violent Crime Severity Index (VCSI) weights offences by average prison sentence and incarceration rate rather than counting incidents equally.
- One murder was worth 306 times a level one assault in the 2019 weights, so severity rises even if incident counts change modestly.
Violent Crime Rate And Severity Rose Together
- Both violent crime rate and violent crime severity have risen over the last decade, producing a V-shaped pattern since 2006 with recent levels matching late 1990s peaks in severity.
- The increase is driven by higher frequency and greater severity simultaneously across many areas.
Certain Regions Drive National Increases
- Regional variation is large: the territories, Manitoba and Saskatchewan show the highest and fastest-rising violent crime severity rates.
- Several Atlantic provinces plus Alberta also now record severity levels higher than any time since 1998.