Astral Codex Ten Podcast Record Low Crime Rates Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care
Mar 14, 2026
They walk through long-run US homicide and property-crime data showing modern lows. They examine whether reduced reporting or better medical care could make declines look larger than they are. They compare police statistics with the National Crime Victimization Survey for validation. They review studies on shooting severity, pre-hospital mortality, and why weapon and violence changes matter.
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Victim Surveys Confirm Declines Aren't Just Underreporting
- Reporting bias (victims avoiding police) cannot explain the declines because NCVS victim surveys mirror police-reported trends.
- NCVS surveys ~240,000 nationally representative people and asks about victimization directly, avoiding reliance on police reports.
Reporting Rates Have Generally Increased Since 1970s
- Police notification rates for many violent crimes have generally increased since the 1970s, not decreased.
- 911 rollout and greater reporting made aggravated assault and sexual offence reporting more likely over 1973–2005.
Reliable Crime Categories Also Show Declines
- Murders are almost always reported and car thefts require police reports for insurance, yet both have declined, so declines are unlikely to be pure reporting artifacts.
- Similar declines across reliably reported crimes strengthen the case that true crime fell.