The DSR Network NTK: The Most Likely Outcome of Trump's Iran War is More Chaos
Mar 13, 2026
Steven Cook, a Council on Foreign Relations Middle East analyst, breaks down the Iran conflict with clarity. He discusses U.S. strategic ambiguity, Israel’s objectives and limits of air power. He also maps risky endgame scenarios, regional costs for Gulf states, and how great-power dynamics and munitions depletion reshape the broader fight.
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U.S. Strategy In Iran Is Unclear And Ambiguous
- The U.S. lacks a coherent, publicly stated objective or strategy in the Iran conflict.
- Steven A. Cook warns Trump mixes tactical messaging and ambiguity, treating warlike choices like real estate deals rather than planned campaigns.
Gulf States Want Iran Degraded But Fear Regional Damage
- Gulf states are publicly blaming Iran for attacks while privately urging the U.S. to finish degrading Iranian capabilities.
- Cook reports Gulf partners are hanging tough but worry economic and infrastructure damage threatens their business-models as regional hubs.
Air Power Alone Can't Deliver Regime Change In Iran
- Regime change in Iran by airpower is implausible and would likely require complex ground operations.
- Cook emphasizes facilities and fissile-material sites (e.g., Isfahan) offer little cover, making covert removal infeasible and risky.