Bloomberg Talks Austin Goolsbee Talks Inflation Risk, Tariffs, Powell
Feb 24, 2026
Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and monetary-policy economist, discusses why inflation risk is now top of mind given a steady labor market. He talks about tariffs and a recent court ruling, how policy uncertainty shapes hiring decisions, and how productivity and AI affect sectoral labor needs. He also previews challenges for upcoming Fed forecasts.
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Inflation Is The Primary Near-Term Risk
- Austan Goolsbee is more worried about inflation than the labor market because jobs and growth look steady.
- He expects multiple rate cuts in 2026 if clear progress on inflation appears, but cautions against getting ahead of data.
Tariff Inflation Should Be Transitory
- Tariff-driven inflation should be transitory and is expected to fade, which is key to returning to 2 percent.
- Goolsbee warns that repeated shifting of forecast timing (pushing the 2% horizon further out) is a bad sign of persistence.
Uncertainty Causes Low Hiring Low Firing
- Policy uncertainty from tariffs and legal rulings depresses hiring while also keeping layoffs low, creating a 'low hiring, low firing' environment.
- Goolsbee interprets this as firms waiting for clearer rules rather than an early recession signal.