Dennis DeBusschere: 22V’s Investing Playbook, Victory & Volatility

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Jun 11, 2025

Dennis DeBusschere, founder and chief market strategist of 22V Research, offers a deep dive into the current economic landscape. He discusses the resilience of large cap tech stocks amid volatility and the risks associated with tariffs and rising bond yields. Dennis emphasizes the Fed's policies and US debt, while exploring the interconnections of fiscal stimulus and market performance. Notably, he introduces his 'fire and ice regime' approach tailored for adapting to shifting economic conditions, alongside insights on small caps and alternative assets.

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INSIGHT

Fiscal Spending and Growth Dynamics

Productive fiscal spending can be non-inflationary and theoretically self-liquidating if interest rates remain below GDP growth.
Post-GFC, fiscal deficits were easier to manage because equilibrium interest rates were below potential GDP growth.

INSIGHT

Deficits Fuel Inflation and Rates

Current deficit increases support demand, but supply side (labor, productivity) is insufficient, increasing inflation risks.
Inflation and deficits will push equilibrium interest rates higher to offset inflationary pressures over time.

INSIGHT

Top S&P Efficiency Drives Market

Top 100 S&P companies have high returns on invested capital relative to cost of capital, driving bullish stock market outlook.
Positive GDP growth makes it difficult to be bearish on S&P despite other headwinds.

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Danny Moses talks with Dennis DeBusschere, founder and chief market strategist of 22V Research. They discuss various economic indicators, the state of large cap tech stocks, and the risks posed by tariffs and rising 10-year bond yields. Dennis shares insights on the Fed's stance, US debt, private credit, energy sector, and gold. The conversation covers the complex dynamics between fiscal stimulus, the Fed's monetary policy, and their implications for market performance. Specific attention is given to the influence of long-term yields on different market segments, particularly small caps and economically sensitive sectors. Dennis also outlines how his 'fire and ice regime' adapts to these economic conditions.--
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