Iran: The Latest ‘Strategically appalling’: Britain’s greatest military expert on Trump’s Iran war
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Mar 12, 2026 Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies and leading military historian, gives a blunt strategic verdict on the US campaign in Iran. He critiques poor planning and risk assessment. Topics include oil disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, tactical wins versus strategic failure, lessons (not) learned from Iraq, escalation risks, and the wider geopolitical winners and losers.
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War Launched Without Strategic Preparation
- The US-led campaign against Iran is strategically flawed and launched without adequate preparation.
- Sir Lawrence Freedman says the operation ignored risk assessment and created long-term economic and geopolitical consequences, notably sustained Gulf shipping disruption.
Use The Chicago Five Before Intervening
- Apply the Chicago five tests before major intervention: certainty of case, exhausted diplomacy, plausible military option, readiness for long haul, national interest alignment.
- Freedman argues the Iran campaign fails these tests because diplomacy was ongoing and long-term planning was absent.
Iran Gained Leverage Through Economic Disruption
- Iran has survived initial strikes and created a bargaining position by making Gulf shipping hazardous.
- Freedman notes the regime lost assets but gained leverage because sustained disruption hurts the West economically.
