Foreign Policy Live War in the Middle East
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Mar 3, 2026 
Vali Nasr, Johns Hopkins professor and Iran scholar, explains why Khamenei’s death matters and how Iran’s institutions may outlast a leader. He discusses succession timing, Iran’s escalation strategy, proxies’ roles across fronts, and competing victory definitions that shape how the war could unfold.
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Duration Hinges On Competing Pain Thresholds
- The war's duration depends on both Iran and Israel's thresholds, with Israel seeking longer degradation of Iran and Iran preferring a protracted costly fight.
- Nasr says Iran hopes to create a deterrent by raising costs for the U.S. and Europe via sustained attacks.
Iran's Gradual Escalation Is a War of Attrition
- Iran is escalating gradually to deplete air-defense interceptors and sustain constant pressure rather than seeking a single decisive strike.
- Nasr notes small drones force expensive Patriot/THAAD uses and continuous barrages wear down defenses and disrupt daily life.
Houthis Are The Most Dangerous Proxy
- The Houthis are the proxy with the most intact and disruptive firepower, able to threaten shipping and widen the battlefield.
- Nasr warns Houthi attacks on Suez/Red Sea and Gulf targets can force diversion of attention to Yemen and complicate responses.