Hot inflation, soft growth, and a CRE market caught in the middle

Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai dig into the latest macro data and benchmark today's landscape against some uncomfortable historical parallels. Drawing on three major economist surveys covering more than 100 forecasters, they also map out where there's consensus, where there's divergence, and what it all means for CRE performance and capital markets.

Key moments:

00:48 Stat of the day: Commercial real estate pricing through the 1970s

02:29 70’s déjà vu

06:31 Hot PPI inflation

08:40 Fed holds rates

13:33 Housing sales slide

16:21 Wholesale inventories

18:56 Economist surveys outlook

26:19 Upcoming data and events

27:02 Catch us at the ARES conference

Resources mentioned:

Producer Price Index – February 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ppi_03182026.htm

FOMC Rate Decision – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm

FOMC Summary of Economic Projections – March 18, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20260318.htm

New Residential Sales – January 2026 -https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html

Advance Economic Indicators (Wholesale Inventories) – January 2026 - https://www.census.gov/wholesale/

Survey of Professional Forecasters – Q1 2026 - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q1-2026

Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998