China Considered From Beijing to Washington: China's Economy with Oliver Melton | China Considered | Hoover Institution
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Sep 18, 2025 Oliver Melton, Director at the Rhodium Group and former U.S. Treasury financial attache in Beijing, shares his on-the-ground insights into China's economy. He highlights the structural imbalances causing economic strife, such as the real estate crash and over-reliance on investment. Melton reviews significant initiatives like the Belt and Road, which is shifting focus towards targeted investments, and China's de-dollarization strategy. He emphasizes the necessity of international coordination for effective responses to China's industrial policies, indicating that unilateral actions may fall short.
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Property Policy Backfired
- China successfully halted speculative property finance but then engineered a near collapse of the sector.
- Attempts to restart financing stalled because banks feared future accountability and corrupt-investigation risks.
High Savings, Investment Trap
- China's high national savings fueled an investment boom absorbed largely by infrastructure and property.
- Having overbuilt housing exposes the structural need to boost consumption or revert to large trade surpluses.
Boost Consumption With Transfers
- Build a comprehensive social safety net with bigger pensions, healthcare, and transfers to reduce precautionary household savings.
- Shift state revenue toward consumption through transfers or privatization to raise household income share of GDP.
