Today, Explained Betting on the Iran war
100 snips
Mar 17, 2026 
Hannah Aaron Lang, a Wall Street Journal markets reporter, and Kate Nibbs, a Wired technology and culture journalist, dig into platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. They explore how people can wager on war and geopolitical chaos. They look at suspiciously precise trades, hazy rules, and why these markets are still dominated by men.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
A Reporter Got Death Threats Over A War Bet
- Emmanuel Fabian got threats after reporting a missile hit near Beit Shemesh because bettors wanted his wording changed to protect their Polymarket position.
- One message warned, after you make us lose $900,000, we will invest no less than that to finish you.
Prediction Markets Turned War Into Retail Gambling
- Sean Rameswaram and Kate Nibbs show how war has become a retail betting product, with markets on bombings, troop deployments, leaders, and shipping lanes.
- Kate Nibbs says Polymarket hosts the more morbid contracts because it operates largely outside the United States.
New Crypto Wallets Suggest War Insider Trading
- Kate Nibbs says sudden wallets made highly precise war bets and quickly profited, suggesting some traders likely knew events before the public did.
- Crypto tracking groups saw new accounts appear days before strikes, place suspect trades, and then vanish after cashing out.