The David Lin Report Will Bitcoin Crash To $40k Next? Ben Cowen Warns Bear Market Not Over
Mar 26, 2026
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and YouTuber known for data-driven crypto analysis. He warns the Bitcoin bear market may not be over and could see deeper drawdowns. Discusses time-based cycle signals, on-chain realized and balance-price indicators, correlations with macro markets, ETF flows versus retail interest, and what could realistically spark a rapid Bitcoin rally.
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Midterm Year Dynamics Point To Deeper Bitcoin Drawdown
- Bitcoin's current drawdown likely hasn't ended because midterm years historically underperform and follow prior midterm averages.
- Benjamin Cowen expects this bear market to reach roughly a 70% peak-to-trough drop, based on diminishing losses across cycles and historical patterns.
On Chain Prices Haven't Reached Historical Bear Lows
- On-chain breadth metrics haven't hit historical bear-market lows yet, signaling more downside risk.
- Cowen notes Bitcoin hasn't fallen below both the realized price and the balance price this cycle, unlike 2011–2022 bottoms.
Dollar Correlations Are Regime Dependent
- Bitcoin's correlations shift with macro regimes, so recent dollar alignment isn't permanent or decisive.
- Cowen compares the DXY topping in 2017 and 2025 and says periods of correlation occur but don't prove a stable relationship.